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What is the Trust Thermocline and how do we avoid it?

Updated: Nov 11, 2022


Have you ever been swimming in a lovely warm sea, bobbing and diving, only to be hit, all of a sudden, with a wall of freezing water a metre or so down? This, in nature, is a thermocline, and is a wonderful metaphor for what can happen to supplier/client relationships when a supplier over stretches their capabilities and small but consistent, and often unreported, issues a client has with their supplier build to a tipping point of no return.


This is inspired by John Bull and Bruce F Webster’s ‘Thermocline’ theories, which show us that there is a significant period of time and usually a series of events when clients are losing trust in their supplier, yet are still not ready to find another. This is down to lots of factors including how difficult and draining it can be to look for new suppliers, as well as strong personal relationships between the two companies. However, these factors won’t last forever and, I would argue, should never have been relied on as a client retention strategy in the first place.


When you hit the ‘Trust Thermocline’ (the point of no return) you start seeing a mass exodus of clients. This can seem like it’s coming out of left field, as many of these stretches in supplier capabilities and minor delivery issues will have been swallowed by the client and not officially reported, but will have been eating away at their trust for their supplier, slowly but surely.


These “trust stretches” include things like that little price hike (with no upside on deliverables), that deadline you missed, the report that had a few spelling mistakes, or the idea that was a bit “Meh”. Like most lovely people; the clients don’t want to be difficult or make a fuss, so they simply swallow a set of small issues, but even though they get fixed (it does get fixed right?), it leaves a small trace. These small stretches and minor issues really add up, weakening the client’s trust in the supplier, until they hit the Thermocline.


Oftentimes small issues within a supplier agency are systemic and this can lead to constantly having to rebuild your client list, which is both dispiriting and expensive.

The most common systemic or even cultural issues we uncover when doing client satisfaction work in b2b situations are:


  • The team are lovely but they don’t challenge us or help us see the future

  • The team are incredibly responsive but rarely proactive

  • We know they work hard for us but the results aren’t there

  • They are highly competent but don’t innovate much

  • The junior team are keen but we don’t see the seniors we bought into

  • We know they understand their specialism but do they understand ours?

  • They seem surprised by what is worrying me


Luckily (for the supplier) agency switching costs are v expensive, time consuming and dangerous, so instead the client will withdraw support slightly from the agency relationship and potentially put them under a bit more pressure to see if they respond accordingly, testing whether their relationship is feeling one sided or if the agency aren’t putting in the amount of work or effort that the client needs or wants.


This slow build up of issues can often be seen by junior employees who are talking to the client all day every day, even if it is just a sense based on a slight change in tone or response from the client. Catching those murmurs of discontent early and adapting can be the difference between retaining a happy client and potentially losing them altogether. So, how do you ensure those client’s minor issues don't converge and hit the Trust Thermocline?


One way, says Webster, is to show junior employees that reporting issues won’t get them in trouble, but in fact will help the client relationship move forward. Oftentimes a junior team member will be too scared of the implications to their own development within the company to report issues as or before they happen, allowing them to build to the point of no return with the client. Encouraging honesty and highlighting the support that will be given if an issue is raised is key in allowing all team members to feel empowered to speak up about emerging issues in real time, rather than after it’s too late.


This is harder than it might seem; team members have their own issues around being the whistle-blower (even on tiny issues), it is seldom easy to speak truth to power.

The other challenge is balancing one grumble with a pattern or build up and that takes experience and confidence to get right. Hence the importance of building a leadership team that can listen and help clients and juniors make sense of their senses.


If you suspect you might be on the brink of a Thermocline event with your client or team, or are trying to build back from one, let me know.


Read more about the Trust Thermocline theory here.


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